Stats and chance of success :/

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Heimer
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Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2017 9:51 am

Stats and chance of success :/

Post by Heimer » Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:40 am

Mind you I have only read the rules, we wont actually have a play session until 18/2 so this post is only based on reading the rules not actual play(yet) :)

Here are the skill levels for starting players:
Novice (1 – 3): The character has had an apprenticeship, and knows the basics of the skill. He’s capable of dealing with simple situations.
Competent (4 – 7): The character uses his skill on a regular basis – probably as part of his work.

As I understand it you roll x dices, where x is your stat used and then add your skill level to it and then you need an 14 for an average test(and yes the DM can give modifiers +- but lets ignore that for now).

The calculations of succes have been made here : http://anydice.com/program/a5d I will round up/down in the results below.

Stat of 2 : (below is the chance of success)
Skill level 1 40%
Skill level 3 55%
Skill level 5 72%
Skill level 7 85%

Stat of 3 : (below is the chance of success)
Skill level 1 63%
Skill level 3 79%
Skill level 5 89%
Skill level 7 96%

Stat of 4 : (below is the chance of success)
Skill level 1 78%
Skill level 3 90%
Skill level 5 96%
Skill level 7 99%

My gut feeling says that those chances for success are REALLY high for normal skillchecks(if stats go above 2). This is without furor and if any of your runes can be applied to tests.

For combat it might not be a problem at all since the target numbers are higher.

What are your experiences with this???? are all skill tests just trivial?

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Corone
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Re: Stats and chance of success :/

Post by Corone » Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:21 pm

Did you include that with a stat roll you only take the best 2 results?
So if you have a stat of 4, you still only keep 2 dice, they'll just probably be better.
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Heimer
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Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2017 9:51 am

Re: Stats and chance of success :/

Post by Heimer » Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:35 pm

Corone wrote:Did you include that with a stat roll you only take the best 2 results?
So if you have a stat of 4, you still only keep 2 dice, they'll just probably be better.
Yes I did :)

Eirvit
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Re: Stats and chance of success :/

Post by Eirvit » Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:24 pm

If this math truly is free of errors, I'm going to have to salt my players' wounds. In my last few sessions my two players (a Berserker and a Volva) accompanied by a few Extras have had a difficult time dealing with Outlaw Extras (a modified version of the Pirate). And the Berserker, who has a Strength of 4 (and a Climb skill, I believe), fell thirty meters from a mountain face on a Difficult check (mountains in the winter, icy, wind blowing) to almost die (he really should have) on a critical hit. The gods are against them!

Heimer
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Re: Stats and chance of success :/

Post by Heimer » Sun Feb 12, 2017 11:35 am

Eirvit wrote:If this math truly is free of errors, I'm going to have to salt my players' wounds. In my last few sessions my two players (a Berserker and a Volva) accompanied by a few Extras have had a difficult time dealing with Outlaw Extras (a modified version of the Pirate). And the Berserker, who has a Strength of 4 (and a Climb skill, I believe), fell thirty meters from a mountain face on a Difficult check (mountains in the winter, icy, wind blowing) to almost die (he really should have) on a critical hit. The gods are against them!
First off we all know dices sometimes hate you :D .... that being said to grab a 19 with 4 dices(keeping 2 best) still only gives him a 31.25% chance(no skill added). A skill of 1 in climbing raises it to 36.8% so its hardly surprising that he failed :)

Eirvit
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Re: Stats and chance of success :/

Post by Eirvit » Sun Feb 12, 2017 3:04 pm

Ah, that makes sense. Good to know the probabilities aren't broken. My players try many things that I deem of average difficulty, and they most often succeed. But they also attempt Difficult tasks. Good to know these tests are indeed challenging!

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